Moving Average and Bollinger Bands

Moving Average:

Moving averages are one of the most popular and easy to use tools available to the technical analyst. Moving average Forex indicator is the average price for a given time interval in relation to other prices during the similar time periods. For instance the closing prices over a 5-day period would have a moving average of the total of the five closing prices divided by five.

The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

A Simple moving average is calculated by adding the prices over a given number of periods, then dividing the sum by the number of periods. For example, a nine-day simple moving average would add together the closing prices for the last nine days, and then divide that number by nine.

An Exponential moving average gives more weight to recent prices, and is calculated by applying a percentage of today's closing price to yesterday's moving average. The longer the period of the exponential moving average, the less total weight is applied to the most recent price. The advantage to an exponential average is its ability to pick up on price changes more quickly.

How to use?

If the price rises above the moving average it can be considered a bullish signal, and if the price dips below the moving average, it can be considered a bearish signal. This "crossover" or "penetration" will not be at the top or bottom, but normally shortly after the price bottoms out or tops out.

Longer-term and shorter-term moving averages can be compared to each other, and generate signals when they cross. When a shorter term MA moves across a longer term MA and both slopes go up, it can be considered a bullish signal. When a shorter term MA moves across a longer term MA and both slopes go down, it's can be considered a bearish signal.

An Example of using Longer-term and shorter-term moving averages to generate signals.

You can use this technique for any currency at 1H or 1 Day time frame. We have to use 7 SMA (Green Line), 14 SMA (Red Line), and 21 SMA (Blue Line).

Entry Rules for Short: Sell when 7 SMA (Green Line) goes through 14 SMA (Red Line) and continues through 21 SMA (Blue Line) in downward direction.

Entry Rules for Long: BUY when 7 SMA (Green Line) goes through 14 SMA (Red Line) and continues through 21 SMA (Blue Line) in upward direction.

Exit rules: Exit when 7 SMA (Green Line) goes back and touches 21 SMA (Blue Line).














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Bollinger Bands:

Developed by John Bollinger, Bollinger Bands are considered some of the most useful bands in technical analysis, for they vary in distance from the moving average of a Forex Market Price based on the security's volatility and relative price levels over a period time. The indicator consists of three bands designed to encompass the majority of a Forex Market Price action.

1. A simple moving average in the middle
2. An upper band (SMA plus 2 standard deviations)
3. A lower band (SMA minus 2 standard deviations)

During periods of increased fluctuation, the bands widen to take this into account, and when the fluctuation decreases, the bands are tapered for a narrower focus to the price range. The upper band is the standard deviation multiplied by a given factor above the simple moving average, and the lower band is the standard deviation multiplied by the same given factor below the simple moving average.

How to use?

In addition to identifying relative price levels and volatility, Bollinger Bands can be combined with price action and other indicators to generate signals and foreshadow significant moves.

Example:

You can use this technique for any currency at 1H or 30M time frame. We have to use 14 EMA (Green Line), 21 EMA (Red Line), 50 EMA (Blue Line) , Bollinger Band (20, 2) (Brown and Yellow Lines).

Entry Rules for Short: if 14 EMA (Green Line) is below 21 EMA, then if both 14 EMA (Green Line) and 21 EMA (Red Line) are below 50 EMA (Blue Line), then if 50 EMA (Blue Line) is within the Bollinger Bands borders (Brown and Yellow Lines).

Entry Rules for Long: BUY if 14 EMA (Green Line) is above 21 EMA (Red Line), then if both 14 EMA (Green Line) and 21 EMA (Red Line) are above 50 EMA (Blue Line), then if 50 EMA (Blue Line) is within the Bollinger Bands borders (Brown and Yellow Lines).

Exit rules: Exit when any of the conditions is violated.